An improvement with the higher level clouds reducing by mid day.  Ealy inversion of 2600m moving to c3200m later in day.  Trigger temp around 25ºC

The day should give us sufficient conditions for a flight to Avila though we may find quite a NE influence in the Avila valley.

11am

2pm

5pm

8pm

A difficult day for paragliding.  Although the surface winds may be relatively light the upper level winds are stronger and the greatest problem is the marked instability which will lead to larger Cu and Cbs forming during the afternoon.  However, we should not loose all hope.  The surface level winds during late afternoon do seem good for PN and also the local forecast shows some clearing by 6pm.  We can but hope!

8pm

5pm

11am

1pm

1500

Once again we have a southerly flow, though today the strength is high enough for it to be unlikely for it to come onto PN.  Some forecasts show a S to SE movement which would go in our favour as Chia take off is very forgiving with strong winds unlike la Lastra.    We also have again a high trigger temperature which means poor thermals early on and then once above c29ºC it should be very good once again.  We may get over 4000m later in the day.  Very good potential for XC if the wind behave early in the day.

1500

5pm

2pm

conditions on track

1pm

Lighter winds today which may but may not come onto Peña Negra.  Light c5km/hr at PN at 9am.   The directions and the convergence seems to put things very much to the north, which is excellent for avoiding the Madrid TMA for flights over 100km.  I think it likely that we will leave at 10.45 to go to La Lastra for an early take off there unless there are obvious changes in the wind at PN.  Blue thermals (and mainly blue convergence) and good quality but a trigger temp of 28ºC in the valley so it may be slow at first.

This is a typical 100km plus day, but I won’t get to excited yet as the forecasts have been a little off some days this week.

SW track

1500

conditions along track

1pm

2pm

5pm

Another unlikely day with a strong WSW flow at around 30km/hr at take off level.  Also some high level cloud, although generally higher temps.  Not an inspiring day for XC nor for any sort of decent PG.  Once again our best chance is late in the day if the wind comes onto PN.  Wind at PN at 9.30 seems less than yesterday so we won’t bin the day too soon, but if we do then maybe that Arapiles and Salamanca trip, returning by 6pm for a potential evening flight.

On the Hirlam surface winds below we can clearly see the convergence running along the Avila valley and directly through Avila.

The surface winds at 8pm definitely look doable at PN

8pm

1pm

1500

5pm surface winds

Here is a quick sketch of Nigel Brevitt started in with a bull point pen in the Terrace of the Bar  in Barco and finished at home before dinner.

Nigel Brevitt

A marked increase in the winds today with a stronger flow from the SW.  Trigger temperature around 25 ºC mid afternoon and top temps around 30ºC.  Yesterday the day was relatively cool at it took a long time for it to get as good as forecast.  Today temperatures should get things going earlier but our main concern must be the winds which are uncomfortably strong even at low levels.

Early this morning the windsock at PN is south, It is likely that convection will bring the wind to cross/on from the west, but we may go early to the southerly site (Lastra del Cano).  With the added wind and a reasonable thermal forecast this could be an epic day for the brave.  For the timid, cowardly and sensible it is not a good day.  Lets hope the winds are over estimated in the forecast.

I will be there for the briefing at 10.30 ish as we will want to have a look at the S take off early if we decide to go with it.  It is about 20km away so not a big drive.

For those interested in learning how to read a SKEW T , I recommend going to this site for the skew T tutorial.  https://www.meted.ucar.edu.  Probably the best Met educational site available.

1pm

1500

winds at 2400m

conditions along track over time

2pm

5pm

This is a perfect day for a jaunt to Segovia, not much more, but that should be possible.  Not an extremely high base, just over 3000m later in the day.  This is beneficial if we want to go under the Madrid TMA  A  very marked convergence going to the North of Avila.  This should be a good quality day for all with light winds good climbs and nothing to extreme. Good conditions for the evening as well.  Briefing around 10.45 in the house.  We will see if we can all fit in.  A shorter one of course since we all now know the airspace, trackers etc.

surface winds 2pm

surface winds 5pm

1pm

3pm

conditions to Segovia over time

track to segovia with winds at 2400m

Passage of a cold front last night leaving us with a bit of stratocumulus in the valley which should thin and clear as the day progresses.  Wind is also decreasing and is from WNW  which makes for good dynamic soaring on the ridge.   Thermal quality also good.  Inversion around 2500m which will keep development down but make XC over the Pass problematic.  We will fly, how well and when and how far will depend upon how things shape up.  Looking nice for the whole week, today is the most problematic.

1pm

Here is a requested Caricature of Craig Morgan, X UK PG  Champion and one of my personal heroes.

Craig Morgan